Stock market: CAC 40, Stellantis, Orange, Crédit agricole, M6… this week in the Momentum program

THE CAC 40 signed off on a poor week, down 0.55% from Friday, with the Paris Stock Exchange suffering gains (after a rally in the last few sessions of January) and expectations of a key Fed rate cut from March. . Indeed, the central bank of the United States “he made it clear in March that his key rate cut was highly unlikely», notes LBP AM, the asset management division of La Banque Postal.

The release of the US jobs report yesterday (Friday) is a less dovish scenario reflecting a still very resilient labor market. Job creation was twice as high as expected in January, and wage growth (+0.6%) was double the pace expected by economists on average (+0.3%). “Wage gains remain strong: a good sign for consumption, much less so for inflation», summarized ABN Amro IS, and in this regard it is recalled that the Fed warned that it would not be comfortable with a 4.5% increase in salaries (more than a year). The Fed’s key rate cut in March is no longer on the agenda, according to the Dutch bank.


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The American economy that is more resilient than you think… and that the State should encourage again

Although the American economy has surprised positively since last summer, it remains largely fueled by massive budget support (the United States’ public deficit is enormous). The support should be significant, especially since the House of Representatives passed legislation that would have cut corporate taxes and given tax credits to families with children worth $78 billion, an additional stimulus to the economy of about 0.3% of GDP. According to LBP AM, this scenario should boost the Fed”to be more careful» about future rate cuts.

In another sign of the US economy’s resilience, ISM data (the purchasing managers’ index, a leading indicator of the economy’s trajectory) for US manufacturing rose to 49.1 in January, the highest level since October 2022. It is also on a global scale. an improvement: JP Morgan’s global PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose to 50 in January, the highest since August 2022. As far as the Eurozone is concerned, the economic landscape is contrasted, with Germany and France doing much less than the peripheral European countries (see in this regard Marc Touati’s column, broadcast at noon on Capital.fr, which will provide plenty of data to illustrate this phenomenon).

The ECB has to act cautiously, but it may lower its key rates in April

Eurozone inflation fell in January, but less than expected. Total inflation rose from 2.9% (year-on-year) in December to 2.8% last month. Energy prices continue to disrupt the trajectory of inflation. And even if the prices of services tend to slow down, some services”always face“, lamented the LBP AM, for whom the ECB should continue like this “has been careful to chronicle this year’s rate cutsHowever, the asset manager is counting on the first cut in key rates since April.


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Oil falls again amid hopes for an improving situation in the Middle East, the stock market appreciates

In the face of geopolitical tensions, rumors of a possible cease-fire between Israel and Hamas (linked to the possible release of some hostages still held by the latter) have created a stir. “Joe Biden put pressure on Israel by punishing some Israeli settlers», reports LBP AM. The scenario of a possible de-escalation this winter weighed on oil prices this week, a good point for the trajectory of inflation.

The CAC 40 falls again, but Momentum’s stock selection in the stock market did well.

THE CAC 40 ended the week in the red, down more than 0.5% for the week, as we’ve seen, but Momentum, Capital’s daily premium investment letter, had a much better track record overall in the stock market. Shares such as Stellantis (+8.79% from one Friday to the next), Hermès (+2.89%), Stef (+4.05%) or even GTT (+4.17%), to name a few, clearly behave they have had a good Another reason to be happy is that we warned readers about the risk of stalling in Eurofins Scientific (-6.41%) and Sanofi (-4.90%), stocks that financial analysts consider (relatively) defensive.

CAC 40, Stellantis, Orange, Crédit agricole, M6… in the Momentum program this week

Apart from our daily scenarios The CAC 40, Momentum has weighed in on the outlook for a number of stocks this week (up or down expectations): Accor, L’Oréal, Dassault Systèmes, Orange, Exail Technologies, Stellantis, Eurofins Scientific, Stef, Danone, GTT, Métropole Télévision (M6), Alten, Hermès and Crédit agricole. And cryptocurrency enthusiasts have not been forgotten, since we delivered our updated scenario for bitcoin. Find our daily analysis and forecasts on the CAC 40 and stocks. And with promo code CAPITAL30J, take advantage of a free (and no-obligation) trial month. To take advantage of it, click on the link below.

>> Buy and sell your shares in the stock market at the right time thanks to Momentum, Capital’s premium investment letter based on technical, economic and financial analysis. Take advantage of a free (and no-obligation) one-month trial right now with promo code CAPITAL30J.

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