Has the decline in real estate prices already ended in some big cities?

Prices per square meter are no longer falling in several major cities, according to our latest BFM Business Bien’Ici barometer “Real Estate Indicators”. At least more than a month. But we still have to wait a few months to see if this is a real trend or a temporary lull.

Real estate prices in the main cities stopped falling in January. Undoubtedly, more than a year, prices per square meter continue to fall sharply almost everywhere in France, our latest BFM Business Bien’Ici barometer “Real Estate Indicators”. But if we compare the prices shown in the advertisements in December and January, it is no longer the same story.

Thus, from one month to the next, prices have not changed a bit in Paris, Aix-en-Provence and Bordeaux, which has not happened for a long time. Similarly, they barely decreased in cities such as Lille (-0.2%) or Montpellier (-0.3%). And they have also increased slightly in Rennes (+0.4% in the month), Lyon (+0.4%) and Strasbourg (+0.1%).

Several hypotheses can explain it. First of all, we generally see this stabilization in urban areas where prices have dropped significantly. To take the example of Paris, prices went from 11,792 euros per square meter in September 2022 (the last peak of our data was only May 2022) to 11,000 euros today, a decrease of 6.7%.

Interest rates that are no longer rising

Second, After the explosion in 2023, interest rates on home loans have stopped rising. Some banks even if they let themselves go down very slightly. However, this is what determines the budget of most buyers. If the latter’s budget does not fall further (as happens when rates rise), this puts less pressure on sellers.

Third, sellers may not change prices further (for example, by leaving an ad online longer without necessarily changing the price), even if it means accepting larger discounts. And that’s hard to know before you have real sales data (and not ads), which notaries will only publish for a few months.

Finally, remember that real estate is seasonal. Most sales take place in the spring, early summer, and then at the beginning of the school year in September and October. In winter, sales are lower and therefore the market is “sleeping”. This may affect prices.

Prices still drop significantly from year to year in many cities

In any case, sellers should not sell bear skins before they die and should not carry them. Nor should buyers worry too much. A month does not make a trend. And it’s entirely possible that after this lull prices will start to drop much more significantly. Although prices have mainly fallen, it is not at all in the same proportions the decrease in purchasing power associated with the increase in interest rates. As the real estate market is an ocean liner, movements are often slow before you see the light. So we will have to wait a few months to find out if we are facing a real trend.

Meanwhile, if we look at the market with a longer view, prices in more than half of the big cities in our barometer continue to fall for more than a year. This is the case today in Marseille (-1% over a year in January), which in 2023 nevertheless held up very well. The square meter also drops significantly in Rennes and Dijon (-1.8% in one year). ), Toulouse (-3.4%), Nantes (-4.4%), Paris (-5%), Lille (-6.1%) and Lyon (-7.9%).

On the contrary, some municipalities are not (yet?) experiencing a crisis, Calais (+7% between 2023 and January 2024), Caen (+4.4%), Boulogne-sur-Mer (+4.1), Le Havre. (+2.6%) and Nice (+1.7%). The attraction of the country’s south and north-west coast continues for the time being.

The rental market is still very tight

As for rents, prices continue to rise, goods on the market, on the other hand, are increasingly rare. And that, despite the establishment of rent limits in more and more municipalities. Rents per m2 are rising in Calais (+26% in one year), Boulogne-sur-Mer (+20%), Villeurbanne (+16%) and Paris (+16%). And only four cities recorded a decrease in rents between 2023 and 2024. The housing crisis, therefore, seems increasingly serious in the rental market.

>> Here are the details of real estate prices (rental and purchase) by city:

· Real estate prices in Paris

· Property prices in Marseille

· Real estate prices Lyon

· Real estate prices in Toulouse

· Real estate prices in Nice

· Property prices in Nantes

· Property prices in Montpellier

· Real estate prices in Strasbourg

· Property prices in Bordeaux

· Property prices in Lille

· Real estate prices in Rennes

· Real estate prices in Saint-Etienne

· Property prices in Le Havre

· Property prices in Toulon

· Property prices in Grenoble

· Property prices in Dijon

· Property prices in Angers

· Real estate prices in Nîmes

· Villeurbanne real estate prices

· Property prices in Mulhouse

· Property prices in Rouen

· Property prices in Caen

· Property prices in Aix-en-Provence

· Real estate prices in Reims

· Property prices in Boulogne-sur-Mer

· Property prices in Calais

· Property prices in Colmar

· Real estate prices in Dunkirk

· Real estate prices in Gap

*Bienici – As part of this monthly real estate price barometer of BFM Companies, the Bienici portal collects the purchase prices and rents appearing in the advertisements published before the negotiations between the 1st and the 25th of the month and published at the beginning of the year. next month The prices used are averages for each criterion. 29 cities are analyzed: Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, Lille, Rennes, Saint-Etienne, Le Havre, Toulon, Grenoble, Dijon, Angers, Nîmes, Villeurbanne, Mulhouse, Rouen, Caen, Aix-en-Provence, Reims, Boulogne-sur-Mer, Calais, Colmar, Dunkirk and Gap.

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